Vendor Stock Forecast

Access from: Forecast → Logistics

For Vendor accounts, the forecast calculates, for each product and marketplace, how many units to ship to Amazon over the horizon you define. It starts from real consumer demand and corrects it for Amazon's ordering behavior, the stock already in place and your business rules.

Vendor vs Seller

In Vendor, Amazon buys from you and then sells to the consumer, so the model does not only look at what sells: it also learns how Amazon orders, which rarely matches real demand. The Seller forecast starts from a different premise.

How to run a forecast

1. Go to Forecast → Logistics.
2. Select the Vendor connections you want to include in the calculation.
3. Define the horizon (dates or number of days) for which to compute the shipment.
4. Adjust the parameters that apply to your operation: minimum final stock, minimum units to ship, units per box and, if you want to scope it, the countries or products.
5. Generate the forecast and review the table by product and marketplace.
6. Export to Excel to use it as an internal production-control and replenishment-planning tool.

First-time data collection

The first time you run a forecast for a Vendor connection, the system may take a few minutes to pull the required history from Amazon (up to 24 months). Subsequent runs are immediate because they start from the history already maintained by the system.

What data it takes into account

Real demand (consumer sales)

• Recent sales of the product (current trend).
• Seasonality: sales from the same period of the previous year.
• The model combines both so it is neither swayed only by the latest data nor blind to seasonal peaks.

Amazon's orders to the vendor

• What Amazon orders and receives from you (it can differ greatly from what sells).
• What you confirm versus what Amazon ends up receiving.
• Open orders and goods in transit (what Amazon already has on the way).

Inventory at Amazon

• Available stock currently in the fulfillment centers.
• Stock in transit.
• Aged stock (more than 90 days without selling), as a signal of overstock.

Stockouts

• Periods when the product was out of available stock, so real demand is not underestimated: it did not sell because there was none, not because there was no demand.

How it adjusts the recommendation

On top of consumer demand, the model applies a series of business corrections:

Adjustment	Purpose
Amazon's ordering pattern	Amazon rarely orders 1:1 against what sells; it usually over-orders or under-orders. The model learns this from history and adjusts the figure to what Amazon will actually order.
Stock already available and on the way	Discounts what is already in the centers and what Amazon has already ordered, to avoid duplication.
Amazon's receiving rate	If Amazon only receives part of what is confirmed, the recommendation compensates for it.
Stockouts	If there were periods without stock, it adjusts demand upward to reflect unmet demand.

Product states

The system classifies each product by its supply situation and shows the state as a colored tag in the table's State column. It describes the relationship with Amazon, not the current stock: replenishment urgency is flagged separately, with the ⚠ icon next to the period's starting stock. Hovering over the tag shows a description of the state.

With a shipment recommendation

In most cases the system issues a shipment figure and includes the state to give context to the commercial conversation.

State	Signal	What it means
Stable	🟢	Amazon orders in line with what sells. Healthy relationship.
Over-stock (active)	🟡	Amazon orders more than what sells; tends to accumulate stock.
Over-stock + aged	🟡	Over-stock with aged inventory; Amazon will cut orders soon.
Correcting	🟡	Amazon's orders have varied a lot between periods; the forecast is smoothed.
Under-supplied	🟡	Amazon orders somewhat less than what sells.
Severely under-supplied	🔴	Amazon orders considerably less than what sells; risk of running short.
Systemic OOS	🔴	Frequent stockouts that depress observed sales.
Insufficient data	⚪	Too little history to classify; a conservative figure is issued.

Without a shipment recommendation

In these cases the system deliberately gives no figure, because shipping stock would make no sense, and states the reason:

State	Signal	What it means
PO suspended	🔴	Amazon has stopped placing orders for this product.
Returns-dominated	🔴	More is returned than Amazon receives.
Vendor off-boarded	🔴	Amazon has almost stopped buying this product from you.
Inactive	⚪	Very low sales; not enough sales activity.

Parameters you configure

Parameter	Effect
Horizon (dates / days)	Period for which the shipment is calculated.
Minimum final stock	Safety buffer below which not to fall.
Minimum units to ship	Floor for the recommended figure.
Units per box	Rounds the shipment to box multiples.
Countries / products	Defines the scope of the forecast. The connection's vendor codes are shown for reference but cannot be used to scope it: Amazon's data does not arrive at that level of granularity.

What it returns

Output	What it is
Sales forecast	Expected consumer demand over the horizon.
Units to ship	Final shipment recommendation to Amazon.
Estimated starting stock	Stock the period is expected to start with.
Product state	Operational situation and, if there is no figure, the reason.

Example

A product that sells ~150 units/month, but for which Amazon historically orders considerably more than what sells and only receives part of what is confirmed. After applying the adjustments, the shipment recommendation lands above the real sales figure —around ~300 units— to cover Amazon's actual ordering pattern. The product state flags that Amazon is over-ordering: a useful data point for the conversation with the brand.